In a shocking turnaround, a new survey of likely student voters produced a stunning result. A recent Irish Rover poll of 705 Notre Dame students shows a preference for Donald Trump over Kamala Harris in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. With the race entering its final stretch, the poll reveals a campus more politically divided than in recent history.
Among likely voters, Trump leads Harris by 47.6% to 45.9%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 0.6% of the vote, and Libertarian Chase Oliver garnered 0.3%. Additionally, 5.5% of students supported candidates not listed on the ballot. Conducted between September 15 and September 18, the poll was distributed across various student dorms, nonpartisan clubs, and classes. Results were weighted to ensure a representative sample of the Notre Dame student body, with a margin of error of 3.8% at a 95% confidence level.
If accurate, the survey would represent the first time in twelve years that Notre Dame students have shown a preference for the Republican presidential nominee. It also marks a significant shift toward Donald Trump compared to his previous standing at the university. In 2020, a Student Government and NDVotes poll found Joe Biden with 66% of the support among Notre Dame students, while Trump received only 29%. Similarly, in 2016, Hillary Clinton led Trump by a substantial margin, 59% to 24%.
When asked for his club’s reaction to the poll, College Republicans President Elliot Anderson told the Rover, “It is amazing to see a college campus stand by President Trump. We hope that the trend of ultra-liberal colleges is finally coming to an end with the increasing youth support for conservative policies.” The university’s newspaper reported that college Democrats refused to comment.
Professor David Campbell, Packey J. Dee Professor of American Democracy and Director of the Notre Dame Democracy Initiative, commented that the results of the poll “demonstrate that Notre Dame students are a microcosm of the nation as a whole.” He added: “The student body is closely divided. As we head into the home stretch of this hotly contested presidential election, I hope that the students of Notre Dame can demonstrate to the country that it is possible to disagree politically, but do so agreeably.”
Trump’s apparent strength among Notre Dame students seems to be driven in part by widespread dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration. Only 35% of those polled said they either strongly or somewhat approved of the current administration, while 65% expressed strong or somewhat disapproving views. The intensity of these opinions is striking: just 5% strongly approved of President Biden, while 40% strongly disapproved. These findings align with a recent Harvard University survey showing Biden’s approval rating at a low 31% among young voters.
“The last four years are why my family is on welfare,” one Catholic-identifying male voter said in explaining his vote for Trump.
“The last four years are why my family is on welfare,” one Catholic-identifying male voter said in explaining his vote for Trump. Another student made a similar remark, stating, “Honestly, the economy really needs to improve from what Biden and Harris are doing because it is becoming very hard to live.”
Although the poll results might surprise some, they are not the first sign of a rightward shift at Notre Dame. A political identification survey by Notre Dame Marriage Pact revealed a 15% decrease in students identifying as “Democrats, Liberals, or Socialists” from Spring 2021 to Fall 2023. During the same period, the number of students identifying as “Republican, Libertarian, or Conservative” increased by 17%.
Another poll released on September 20, 2024, by NDTV/Scholastic showed Vice President Harris leading the presidential race with 57% support compared to 43% for former President Trump. However, this survey had a small sample size of 237 and was notably skewed with a significant oversample of female respondents. Despite these methodological issues, the results still indicated a 23-point shift toward Trump compared to his standing in 2020.
