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GOP Gets Big Surge In Key Texas County, Changing Election Day Odds

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Election Day opened with heavy turnout in one of Texas’ strongest Republican counties as voters began deciding several closely watched statewide races. Montgomery County reported 5,908 voter check-ins between 7 a.m. and 8 a.m. Tuesday, according to an unofficial county turnout tracker cited by Trending Politics.

That compared with 6,451 check-ins during the same opening hour of the 2024 presidential election, putting Tuesday’s pace at roughly 91.6% of 2024 levels. The comparison drew attention because presidential elections typically generate substantially greater turnout than midterms.

Montgomery County, located north of Houston, is also one of the most important Republican vote-producing counties in Texas. President Donald Trump received 221,964 votes there in 2024 compared with 82,277 for Democrat Kamala Harris. Trump captured approximately 72% of the county vote and finished nearly 140,000 votes ahead of Harris.

The Houston Chronicle reported that Montgomery County provided Trump his largest raw county-level victory margin anywhere in the country during the 2024 election. That makes turnout there particularly important for Republicans attempting to accumulate enough votes to offset Democratic advantages in Texas’ largest urban counties.

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Gov. Greg Abbott (R) highlighted Montgomery County’s importance during a campaign stop there last week. “Montgomery County is the most pivotal county in this election,” Abbott told supporters. “What happens in Montgomery County, what the turnout is going to be, is going to dictate who wins Texas,” he added.

Turnout had already been running well above normal midterm levels during early voting. Montgomery County recorded 18,837 ballots on the first day of early voting, approximately 16.5% more than during the comparable opening day in 2022. More than 78,000 ballots had been cast through the first five days, with in-person participation running approximately 28% above the comparable 2022 period.

The surge was not limited to Republican territory. Counties across Texas reported unusually strong participation during early voting, including several Democratic-leaning metropolitan areas. Dallas County recorded 76,079 voters on the first day of early voting, surpassing its 2024 presidential-election opening-day total of 56,431.

Harris County also recorded more than 104,000 ballots by 6 p.m. on opening day, setting a midterm record.



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Jonathan Davis

Jonathan Davis is the editor-in-chief for USA Journal News.