So, are Texans about to elect the first Democrat to Congress in a generation? The polling and media narratives up to this point would suggest so. But we say – just hold on, now.
Republican Ken Paxton holds a razor-thin lead over Democrat James Talarico in a new Trafalgar Group poll released immediately before Election Day. The survey shows Paxton at 48.1% and Talarico at 47.5%, giving the Republican a 0.6-point advantage among likely Texas voters.
Another 2.4% supported another candidate, while 2% remained undecided heading into Tuesday’s election. Trafalgar surveyed 1,089 likely voters between Oct. 31 and Nov. 1 using live calls, automated calls, text messages and email.
The result represents significant movement toward Paxton compared with Trafalgar’s previous survey conducted in early October. Paxton stood at 43.6% in Trafalgar’s Oct. 8 poll. That amounts to a 4.5-point increase for the Republican nominee within Trafalgar’s polling over roughly three weeks.
However, the contest remains exceptionally close, and Paxton’s advantage in the Trafalgar survey is too small to demonstrate a clear statewide lead. Other recent polls have produced substantially different results, underscoring uncertainty surrounding one of the country’s most closely watched Senate contests.
A New York Times/Siena University poll released Sunday showed Talarico at 50% and Paxton at 43% among 1,215 likely voters. A YouGov survey of 2,141 likely voters showed Talarico leading 51% to 47%, according to polling compiled by 270toWin.
Meanwhile, Quantus Insights recently found Paxton narrowly ahead, reinforcing evidence that some surveys continue showing a virtually tied contest. That poll placed Paxton at 48.7% and Talarico at 47.6% among 1,221 likely voters surveyed Oct. 26 through Oct. 28.
The Quantus result carried a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points, putting the candidates statistically even. Taken together, the final surveys show substantial disagreement about the precise state of the race rather than a uniform polling picture.
One polling average calculated Monday placed Talarico at 49.4% and Paxton at 46.1% across 12 qualifying nonpartisan (sure) surveys. Another polling compilation showed Talarico averaging 48.6% compared with Paxton’s 45.8% entering Election Day.
Paxton, Texas’ three-term attorney general, captured the Republican nomination after defeating longtime Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP runoff. President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton late in the Republican contest after initially remaining neutral between the two prominent Texas Republicans.
Talarico, a Democratic state representative and former short-lived public-school teacher, defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett to secure his party’s nomination. The election will determine who succeeds Cornyn and whether Republicans maintain control of a Senate seat the party has held for decades.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since Lloyd Bentsen won reelection in 1988. But of course, that was a much different Democrat Party at the time.
