Republicans and Democrats alike are closely watching the Senate race in Texas, with the latter hoping for a huge upset in just a couple of days.
Republican Ken Paxton has moved narrowly ahead of Democrat James Talarico in a new Texas Senate poll, offering Republicans an encouraging data point with Election Day approaching. The latest Quantus Insights survey found Paxton receiving 49% support among likely Texas voters compared with 48% for Talarico, leaving the candidates separated by just one percentage point.
The survey was conducted from Oct. 26 through Oct. 28 and represents a modest improvement for Paxton compared with Quantus’ previous polling earlier this month. Quantus’ Oct. 9-11 survey had Paxton at 47.2% and Talarico at 46.7%, a statistical tie within that poll’s approximately 3.6-point margin of error.
The latest result likewise indicates an extremely close contest rather than a clear advantage because Paxton’s one-point edge falls within normal polling margins of error. The movement nevertheless gives Republicans another late indication that Paxton remains highly competitive after months in which numerous public surveys showed Talarico holding narrow leads.
Republican voters also appear to be consolidating behind Paxton after a bruising GOP primary and runoff that initially exposed significant divisions within the Texas Republican coalition. Paxton defeated longtime Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican runoff after Cornyn narrowly finished ahead of him during the first round of primary voting. President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton, by the way.
The general election has since developed into one of the country’s most expensive and closely watched Senate contests, with Republicans seeking to maintain control of a seat they have held for decades. Talarico, a Democratic state representative and former public school teacher who only taught for a couple of years, won his party’s nomination after defeating incumbent Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary.
Texas Democrats have not won a statewide election since 1994, while Republicans have controlled both of the state’s U.S. Senate seats since the 1990s. Paxton has served as Texas attorney general since 2015 and built a national profile through legal battles with Democratic presidential administrations over immigration, abortion, election law and federal regulatory policies.
The Republican has also received substantial outside financial support during the general election, including major spending from groups backed by billionaire Elon Musk.
