House Speaker Mike Johnson is rejecting polling that suggests Democrats are positioned to capture the House in November, arguing that Republican enthusiasm on the ground tells a dramatically different story from surveys dominating political coverage.
During an appearance Tuesday on Fox News Channel’s “America’s Newsroom,” Johnson disputed assessments showing Democrats with an advantage in the battle for control of Congress. The Louisiana Republican said his extensive campaigning in competitive districts has convinced him that polling organizations are failing to capture the strength of Republican support.
Fox News host Dana Perino confronted Johnson with predictions from political analysts who believe Democrats are positioned to win the House majority. “I’m going to give you a shot here to respond to some political analysts who say the House is gone, that the Dems are definitely going to be in the majority,” Perino said.
Johnson immediately pushed back against that conclusion and pointed to what he has witnessed while campaigning across the country. “We’re excited,” Johnson said, noting that his schedule would take him through eight states as Republicans enter the final stretch before Election Day. I have been doing this for almost two years, and I’m telling you, the polling is wrong,” Johnson said.
Speaker Johnson: "I’m telling you, the polling is WRONG."
"DON’T BUY IT."
They’re under sampling Republicans because Republicans don’t want to respond to polls anymore.
"I am seeing huge energy and crowds. It feels like 2024 to me. That’s not registering in the polls, and WE’RE FIRED UP."
— Mr Producer (@RichSementa) October 13, 2026
The speaker argued that Republican voters have become increasingly difficult for traditional polling organizations to reach, potentially creating problems for surveys attempting to accurately model the electorate. Johnson said some pollsters have acknowledged difficulties getting Republicans to participate in surveys, leaving open the possibility that GOP support is being underestimated in certain races.
He also pointed to a CNN analysis of historical polling errors as evidence that skepticism about current numbers is not without precedent. According to Johnson, the analysis found Republican candidates were underestimated in October polling during 14 of the previous 16 election cycles dating back to 1994.
“Don’t buy it,” Johnson said of predictions that Republicans are headed toward defeat. The speaker said his firsthand experiences in battleground districts have shown something substantially different from the political environment portrayed by some national polling. “I’m telling you, I’m on the ground in the swing districts,” Johnson said. “It feels like 2024 to me.”
His comments come as Republicans confront a difficult historical reality because the president’s party frequently loses House seats during midterm elections, making voter turnout particularly important.
Republicans nevertheless enter the final weeks arguing that Trump’s political coalition, including working-class voters and increased Republican support among some Hispanic voters, could complicate traditional midterm assumptions.
Johnson has traveled extensively to support GOP candidates while emphasizing Republican positions on taxes, immigration, energy production, public safety and government spending.
Johnson’s argument ultimately rests on the belief that Republican enthusiasm he is witnessing across battleground districts will translate into votes when Americans cast their ballots. With November 3 approaching, the speaker is betting that the electorate showing up at Republican events is closer to political reality than some surveys currently suggesting Democrats have the advantage.
