Washington state, one of the bluest addresses on the electoral map, may be about to do something that will make liberals choke on their kombucha. A poll released by Let’s Go Washington found that 56 percent of likely voters support Initiative 638, a ballot measure that would prohibit biologically male students from competing in K-12 athletic activities designated for female students.
The number should really be 100%, but not enough people were smart enough to be honest with themselves – or the poll had too many white liberal women involved and they make all the wrong decisions when it comes to this type of poll.
The survey covered 7,500 likely voters. Twenty-four percent said they’d vote no, and 22 percent were undecided, which means more people are ready to vote yes right now than plan to vote no and undecided combined. That’s not a close race, that’s a rout.
The cross-party numbers are even more interesting. Seventy-three percent of Republicans support the measure, which surprises absolutely nobody. But 48 percent of Democrats and 52 percent of independents also said yes, which has to sting for the progressive crowd that thought this was settled.
The initiative shows up on the November 3, 2026, ballot as an indirect initiated state statute. If it passes, school districts and nonprofits running interscholastic activities would be required to keep biologically male students out of female-designated sports. Students wanting to compete in female categories would need documentation from a healthcare provider confirming biological sex, based on reproductive anatomy, genetic makeup, or normal endogenously produced testosterone levels. Coed activities open to everyone would still be allowed.
Public attention in Washington has focused on specific cases that helped put this issue on the radar. One involves a transgender track athlete who previously won a state title in the 400 meters. Another involves a high school cross-country runner who competed on the boys’ team earlier in the season and then competed on the girls’ team and recorded a varsity victory. The current Washington Interscholastic Activities Association policy lets students participate consistent with their gender identity or the gender most consistently expressed.
To put the scale in perspective, state estimates put the number of transgender athletes in Washington at somewhere between five and ten, out of more than 200,000 student competitors. Five to ten students. The whole state is having this conversation over a number smaller than a starting basketball lineup.
If Washington voters approve the measure, the state would become the first Democrat-controlled state to enact this kind of restriction through direct voter action. Twenty-seven other states already have laws on the books doing the same thing, so Washington would simply be joining a very large club. The Northwest Progressive Institute opposes the measure and has done its own polling, but hasn’t released the results. Sitting on poll numbers is always a great sign that the numbers are going great.
The initiative heads to voters on November 3. If it passes, progressive activists in Olympia will have learned a hard lesson: when you let the people vote, sometimes the people vote the way that everyone knows is the right decision. Drop a comment below or share this on social media and let us know where you stand.
