Oil prices blew past $105 a barrel Thursday after reports emerged that President Trump is weighing another round of military strikes on Iran, and energy markets did not take the news calmly. Brent crude spiked as soon as the story hit, putting gas prices right back at the top of the conversation just weeks before the midterm elections.
The timing is a little awkward, to put it gently. Trump told reporters last month to hang tight: “Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward.” Now, according to The Atlantic, the White House has directed the Pentagon to develop strike options that could be executed before Election Day, citing two administration officials familiar with the deliberations.
U.S. Central Command is working up those options, though the potential targets and scope are still being discussed. Trump has not decided whether to pull the trigger. Trump Iran strike options report also notes that officials privately acknowledge another attack would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. So the strikes would not fix the gas prices, and they would not produce a diplomatic breakthrough before Americans vote. Other than that, great plan.
One Republican familiar with the discussions offered the political logic to The Atlantic anyway. “It would make the president look like he got a win,” the Republican said. Fair enough. Winning is good. But a Reuters/Ipsos poll from this summer found only about 30% of voters approve of Trump’s handling of Iran, and a separate Politico poll found 59% of Trump voters are already blaming the war for rising energy costs. Those are not numbers that scream “escalate now.”
The diplomatic track has not been much cheerier. Washington and Tehran are still deadlocked over Iran’s nuclear program and control of the strait. Qatari-mediated talks have produced little progress. Iran keeps pushing for a return to a June memorandum that briefly halted the fighting, but that ceasefire fell apart after Washington accused Tehran of attacking U.S.-backed oil vessels. American forces then struck Iranian radar installations, military positions, and vessels along the Persian Gulf.
The conflict has also spread well beyond Iran’s borders. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed Thursday they struck Saudi Arabia’s main airport for the third time this week. Repeated explosions in Riyadh sent diplomats sheltering inside their embassies, and at least one international school moved children into a basement. Separately, newly surfaced footage showed an attack on a major U.S. base in Kuwait from seven months ago, featuring Iranian ballistic missiles, drones, and aircraft that witnesses identified as F-5 fighter jets.
The next move is Trump’s. Markets will be watching every word out of the White House, and so will every voter filling up at the pump. Drop a comment below and tell us what you think Trump should do.
