A new poll has placed Republican challenger John Braun statistically tied with Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, handing Republicans a real opening in a seat the Cook Political Report now rates a toss-up. The survey, conducted by DHM Research and commissioned by Oregon Public Broadcasting, shows Braun at 46% and Gluesenkamp Perez at 44% among likely voters, tightening to 48% and 47% respectively after undecideds were pushed to lean one way or another.
The poll of 543 likely voters, conducted September 17 through 27, carries a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points, meaning neither candidate has a statistically clear lead. What is clear: a sitting Democrat in a district that has voted for President Trump three times is fighting to hold her seat, and the fight is real.
Braun’s Message Is Landing Where It Hurts Democrats Most
The survey’s broader findings are not encouraging for Gluesenkamp Perez. Some 61% of likely voters in the district said Washington state is on the wrong track. Affordability and high taxes topped the list of concerns in open-ended responses, and 89% of likely voters said healthcare was an important issue.
Braun, the state Senate Republican leader, is running directly at those concerns. His campaign pitches 31 years of Navy service, manufacturing experience running Braun Northwest, a Chehalis company that builds emergency vehicles, and an economic platform built on less regulation, expanded energy production, and restraint in federal spending. He also highlighted a Community Health Champion award on October 1, writing, “Some of the most important work we can do is make sure people in our communities can get the care they need, when they need it.” That is a candidate who has clearly done his homework on where voters’ heads are. Whether his proposals would actually deliver for working families is exactly the debate this race will turn on, but he is at least speaking the right language.
On the money side, according to the WA-3 congressional race poll, a super PAC tied to President Trump called No Going Back PAC had spent roughly $1.7 million in the district as of late September. Democratic-aligned outside groups had spent about $354,000 over the same period, according to federal filings cited by OPB. Braun also holds President Trump’s endorsement, a meaningful asset in a district that has backed Trump three consecutive times.
Gluesenkamp Perez Goes After Braun on Fundraising
Gluesenkamp Perez is not sitting quietly. On October 1, she took a shot at Braun over a fundraiser with House Speaker Mike Johnson, posting, “When forced to choose between fundraising in Olympia with Speaker Johnson or meeting with constituents, Senator Braun chose the money. Sad.” It is a classic incumbent move, painting a challenger as a Washington insider. The irony of a Democratic incumbent leaning on that line while her party’s outside groups trail Republican spending by more than four to one is the kind of contrast that writes its own punchline.
Gluesenkamp Perez’s campaign has attributed the tightening race partly to that Republican-aligned outside spending, according to OPB’s reporting. She has proven she can win here, taking the seat in 2022 and holding it in 2024. But she has never run in this environment, with this much outside money working against her and this level of economic anxiety baked into the electorate.
With neither candidate above 50% and five percent of voters still uncommitted, both campaigns have ground left to cover before election day. For Republicans, flipping WA-3 would be one more step toward cementing or expanding their House majority. For Democrats, losing a district they have already won twice, in a seat where the incumbent is a known quantity, would be a painful signal about the national environment heading into the final stretch. Voters who are worried about their wallets and believe their state is heading in the wrong direction tend to look for change. Right now, John Braun is positioned to be that change.
