Democrats need a net gain of four seats to capture control of the U.S. Senate in November, but a new poll from Maine shows one of the party’s most important Republican targets remains highly competitive.
Republican Sen. Susan Collins leads Democratic challenger Troy Jackson 49% to 46% among likely voters in a New York Times/Siena Research Institute survey released Thursday.
Another 5% of voters remain undecided. Collins’ three-point advantage falls within the poll’s 4.9 percentage-point margin of error, meaning the results do not establish a statistically clear leader with fewer than six weeks remaining before Election Day.
MAINE POLL By UMass Lowell/YouGov
SENATE
? Troy Jackson: 48%
? Susan Collins (inc): 43%
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GOVERNOR
? Hannah Pingree: 49%
? Robert Charles: 38%8/28-9/14 | 650 LVhttps://t.co/HmWCx0iHRi pic.twitter.com/S4bB6XXkPY
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 24, 2026
The survey of 619 likely Maine voters was conducted Sept. 15-22 in partnership with the Portland Press Herald and with support from the Maine Trust for Local News. The result nevertheless represents an improvement for Collins, who is seeking a sixth term and has trailed Jackson in several previous surveys.
Siena Research Institute described the new result as a three-point Collins advantage while noting that Democrats hold narrow leads in two other closely watched Senate contests, Michigan and New Hampshire. Maine is especially important to Democratic hopes of winning back the Senate because Collins is the only Republican senator seeking reelection this year in a state President Donald Trump lost in 2024.
The new poll also reveals an unusual split among Maine voters. While Collins leads Jackson individually, 55% of respondents said they would prefer Democrats to control the Senate next year. Forty-three percent said they want Republicans to retain control. That means Collins is substantially outperforming her party in the state.
The same survey found significant dissatisfaction with Trump. Sixty-six percent of respondents disapproved of his job performance, while 32% approved. Fifty-five percent also said Trump’s policies have hurt Maine. Collins, by comparison, received a positive personal rating from 51% of respondents, while 48% viewed her unfavorably.
Jackson’s numbers were weaker. Forty-one percent viewed the Democrat favorably, compared with 49% who viewed him unfavorably. The poll suggests Collins continues to benefit from the independent political identity she has cultivated during more than two decades in the Senate. The candidates were tied at 47% when voters were asked who would be the more independent voice in Washington. They were also tied at 47% over who would better address the cost of living.
Collins held larger advantages when voters were asked which candidate would be the more effective senator and who would be better positioned to bring federal resources to Maine. Jackson performed somewhat better on health care, foreign wars and issues surrounding the growth of data centers in the state.
The race has undergone significant upheaval this year. Democrats originally nominated Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and military veteran, in the June primary. Platner withdrew from the race in July following a sexual-assault allegation involving a former girlfriend, which he denied.
Maine Democrats subsequently selected Jackson at a special nominating convention. Jackson, a fifth-generation logger from northern Maine, previously served as president of the Maine Senate. He had unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination for governor earlier this year before entering the Senate contest following Platner’s departure.
Several earlier surveys showed Jackson with a narrow advantage over Collins. A Fox News poll conducted in August had Jackson ahead 48% to 46%, while a University of New Hampshire survey showed him leading 49% to 46%. The latest New York Times/Siena survey is the first major independent poll since Jackson became the Democratic nominee to show Collins ahead.
Collins has faced difficult political conditions before. During her 2020 reelection campaign, public polling consistently suggested she was in danger of losing to Democratic challenger Sara Gideon. Collins ultimately won by approximately nine percentage points even as Democrat Joe Biden carried Maine in the presidential race. Her ability to attract independents and some Democratic voters has again become central to her reelection strategy.
Democrats, meanwhile, have sought to connect Collins to Trump and the Republican Senate majority, arguing that a vote for Collins could help Republicans maintain control of the chamber. Collins has supported significant portions of Trump’s agenda but has also broken with the president on several high-profile issues, including criticizing his tariffs on Canada and opposing Attorney General Todd Blanche’s confirmation.
The latest survey was completed before renewed controversy surrounding Collins following a ProPublica report concerning a proposed FBI investigation into allegations involving political donations and federal funding.
Collins has strongly denied wrongdoing and called the allegations “absolutely outrageous.” No one associated with Collins was charged, and the proposed investigation did not proceed. That timing means any effect from the controversy would not be reflected in the new polling.
