With momentum on their side and victories for the White House and U.S. Senate behind them, Republicans on Wednesday moved closer to the ultimate prize in Washington politics: a majority in the U.S. House, which would pave the way for a more straightforward governing process over the next two years. The House GOP entered Election Day with one of the narrowest majorities in modern history.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-AL) recognized this, telling Axios that his political team has spent over a year preparing for Tuesday’s elections. “We’ve been working for a year … preparing this playbook that we’ll talk about all the time for the next Congress,” he said, laying out a “keep your quarterback” message that has become easier after flipping several contested seats. “So if we’re going to … run those plays and execute them with precision, you got to keep the quarterback on the field and keep the same team,” he added.
Two years after Republicans were unable to deliver the much-anticipated “red wave” in the 2022 midterms, it finally materialized, sweeping away Democratic House members in swing districts. Republican Tom Barrett (R-MI) defeated Democrat Curtis Hertel, flipping a suburban seat currently held by Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), who is still in a tight race against former Rep. Mike Rogers as votes are counted for the Senate seat. In Pennsylvania’s 8th district, Republican Rob Bresnahan Jr. unseated incumbent Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-PA), reclaiming a seat that Republicans lost in the 2018 midterms.
The devastating hurricane in North Carolina turned out to be the “October surprise” that may give Republicans an advantage heading into 2025. CNN projected victories for Republican House candidates Brad Knott, Tim Moore, and Addison McDowell, increasing the total number of seats flipped by the GOP to four. Meanwhile, Democrats managed to flip New York’s 19th and 22nd Districts, defeating Reps. Marc Molinaro and John Mannion (R-NY), the latter being labeled the most vulnerable Republican this cycle. Other at-risk Republicans, including Mike Lawler (R-NY) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA), successfully retained their seats, allowing the caucus to maintain its slim majority for the time being.
Control of the lower chamber remains uncertain. Republicans have secured 197 of the 218 seats needed for an outright majority, while Democrats hold 177. Politico forecasts that it may take weeks or even months to finalize the tally, particularly due to the slower counting processes in states like Arizona and California. Meanwhile, other House Republicans, including Reps. Don Bacon (R-NE) and Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY), are fighting for their political futures, along with Democratic Reps. Susan Wild (D-PA) and Matt Cartwright (D-PA).
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