Vote-by-mail numbers from Pennsylvania suggest that Vice President Kamala Harris may be facing difficulties, with one pollster expressing total disbelief at the results. As Election Day approaches, Democrats had anticipated a net lead of 50,000 votes, but they currently lead by just over 2,400 following the counting of Monday’s vote-by-mail ballots, according to Pittsburgh political consultant Mark Davin Harris.
“PA VBM update – Strong update today. Dems only squeak out 2,411 net votes. Starting to really run out of ramp. GOP likely to take over the return rate lead,” he wrote on X, clarifying that the 50,000 vote lead was supposed to encompass just Monday’s count, not all pre-Election Day ballots. “To be clear 2,411 for the day. Bringing to 413k total.” Rich Baris, president of Florida-based Big Data Poll, couldn’t believe was he was reading. “Mark, these numbers are real? Not a reporting error?” he replied. “I’m serious, not an error?”
??PA VBM update – Strong update today. Dems only squeak out 2,411 net votes. Starting to really run out of ramp. GOP likely to take over the return rate lead.
— Mark Davin Harris (@markdharris) November 4, 2024
Dems were expecting to net 50,000 ballots today in Pennsylvania.
The actual number is 2,400. https://t.co/VLQ32a9RdK
— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) November 5, 2024
Mark, these numbers are real? Not a reporting error?
I’m serious, not an error?
— Rich Baris The People’s Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) November 4, 2024
Pollsters have been grappling for weeks to determine whether Pennsylvania will favor Harris or former President Donald Trump, and Tuesday’s vote-by-mail results provide the most encouraging indication yet for the former president. While FiveThirtyEight shows Harris with a narrow lead in polling averages, the two most recent surveys conducted on Sunday and Monday reveal Trump ahead by 1 point.
Other signs of a potential Trump victory in Pennsylvania have emerged in recent weeks. Politico reported on Monday a sudden increase in enthusiasm for the Republican candidate among Latino voters. Traditionally known for his strong appeal to blue-collar white voters, Trump is now making significant strides within Latino communities in cities like Reading, an area where Democrats have historically had the upper hand. His campaign strategy places a strong emphasis on engaging the Latino population in Pennsylvania, specifically targeting neighborhoods with high concentrations of Puerto Rican and Dominican residents. In Reading, where Latinos comprise nearly 69 percent of the population, Trump’s team is actively working to connect with the community, including the establishment of a “Latino Americans for Trump” office in the city center.
Amid early voting, tensions arose among Harris staff and supporters over the campaign’s strategy in Philadelphia. Democratic elected officials and junior staffers criticized the hiring of campaign manager Nikki Liu, a Pittsburgh native, arguing that she lacked the on-the-ground experience needed to mobilize low-propensity Harris voters in crucial areas of the city. “I have concerns about Nikki Liu,” said Ryan Boyer, head of the city’s influential building trades council and the foremost voice on labor issues in the capital city. “I don’t think she understands Philadelphia.”