Throughout the 2024 election cycle, the Ohio Senate race between Republican challenger Bernie Moreno and Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown has been one of the most closely monitored contests in the nation. Brown maintained a lead for much of the race, but in a late development, Moreno has now pulled ahead in the RealClearPolitics polling average for the first time, achieving a slim 0.4-point lead over Brown. Should he win, that will be a monumental blow to current Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
The latest average shows Moreno at 46.4% and Brown at 46.0%, indicating a potential shift in momentum as Ohio voters prepare to cast their ballots. Moreno’s rise in the polls follows new data from a The Hill/Emerson survey, which polled likely voters from October 30 to November 2 and found Moreno with a 3-point lead over Brown.
In that poll, Moreno leads with 48% of the vote compared to Brown’s 45%, although 6% of voters remain undecided. Considering potential shifts from undecided voters, projections suggest that Moreno could secure 52% of the vote against Brown’s 48%. Additionally, a Morning Consult poll conducted from October 23 to November 1 also showed Moreno with a slight advantage, while other polls, including those from Trafalgar Group and Bowling Green/YouGov, indicate that the race remains extremely close.
? BREAKING: Ohio Republican Bernie Moreno now LEADS THE POLLS for Senate. pic.twitter.com/BchL2oTFVG
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 4, 2024
Brown, who has occupied the Senate seat since 2007, entered the race with considerable name recognition and a history of success in a state that has increasingly leaned Republican in recent elections. Initially, Brown appeared well-equipped to fend off challengers, as early polls indicated he held a modest but steady lead throughout the initial months of the race.
Moreno, a businessman with experience in the auto and technology industries, officially entered the race with a campaign centered on conservative values, economic growth, and a challenge to Washington’s “status quo.” He positioned himself as an outsider ready to disrupt the establishment. His campaign has embraced populist messaging, appealing to Ohio’s conservative and right-leaning voters, particularly as the state has increasingly favored Republican candidates in recent election cycles.
Ohio’s political landscape has shifted rightward in recent years, which poses a challenge for Brown, a Democrat in a state that went for Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020. In the Senate, the balance of power stands at 47 Democrats, including four Dem-leaning “Independents” and 49 Republicans. That said, because of Ohio’s leaning towards Republicans, it’s likely why Trump’s team settled on the state’s other senator, Republican JD Vance, to become the GOP nominee’s running mate.
