A newly released Trump-Vance campaign memo detailed several major red flags for Democrats in urban and female turnout, two demographics that are widely considered essential to a Democrat victory on Tuesday, which is an absolute nightmare for Vice President Kamala Harris.
“With Early Voting closed and Election Day on the horizon, Democrats are facing a massive turnout deficit. In every single battleground state, we see President Trump and Republicans outperforming elections past in absentee ballots and early votes cast,” reads the memo, which was sent by RNC Chief Data Consultant Tim Saler to senior members of the Trump-Vance Campaign. “As we dive deeper into the data, Democrats are facing a precipitous decline in urban turnout according to their own ‘data experts’ and we are tracking an uptick in rural turnout.”
The memo included a statement from former Obama campaign manager Jim Messina, who stated that “the early vote numbers are a little scary” for Democrats during an appearance on MSNBC. “What Mr. Messina is downplaying, is they are a lot scarier for Democrats. According to NBC News, President Donald J. Trump has a 16-point lead (56-40) among voters who plan to cast their ballot on Election Day. Obama’s chief campaign strategist and CNN political commentator, David Axelrod, told CNN that there are no guarantees that voters will turn out on Election Day for Vice President Harris,” the memo continues.
“Democrats are spinning themselves and reporters by claiming that their voters will turn out on Election Day when polls show otherwise and, most importantly, that’s asking Democrat voters to do something they have absolutely no history of doing. If Democrats, who historically vote ahead of Election Day, haven’t been motivated to show up for Kamala yet, why do we expect them to show up tomorrow?”
The memo references polling data from Democrat data expert Tom Bonier of TargetSmart, highlighting troubling figures for Democrats across all battleground states. The decline is particularly evident in Arizona, where urban turnout has decreased by 385,285 votes compared to the last election. Additionally, female turnout is down by 170,011 votes, while rural turnout has increased by 14,124 votes relative to 2020. Urban turnout has decreased by over 300,000 votes in Michigan and Pennsylvania, while female turnout has dropped by more than 200,000 votes in Michigan and a remarkable 450,802 votes in Pennsylvania.
Here’s the memo:
The former president currently maintains a lead in North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average. Unless there are unexpected outcomes, Vice President Harris would need to secure victories in the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to win the presidency, assuming current polling trends remain unchanged.
